2009 Predictions

[Kriz]

At the start of this year, just for a laugh, I decided to write down a list of tech related predictions for this year to see how close or far away I could get to the actual reality as the year progressed. Since then, some of the things I listed have started to look more likely to happen, while others are quite laughable.

Anyways, I thought I might share this as I think it's an interesting idea to use logic, knowledge of the market and pure luck in trying to predict what might happen in the future.

The List:

Windows 7 released - Looks too much like Vista and doesn't come with ability to choose a Windows XP Luna desktop theme, users unsuprisingly cling to XP.

Apple release cheap netbook - Atom + Ion. Maybe 10+ hour battery life.

Sony Playstation 3 sees a large price cut.

Microsoft release Blu-ray addon for XBOX 360 within 2 months of PS3 price cut.

Nintendo enjoy steadily increasing demand, no price change on Wii.

Considerable doubt placed on accuracy of current Climate Change data during the lowest period of the global economic crisis this year. Whether this means that the corrected data shows much worse conditions or much more favorable conditions in the future is uncertain.

----

There you go. I didn't even think there would be a new iPhone this year, nor did I expect the Australian government to propose a $43B 100Mbit FTTH broadband network. Shows what I know

[LodeHacker]

Reading up some rumors recently a small group of people who claim to know more about official PS3 development say that Sony is going to cut production costs using a different chipset with smaller fabrication. Whether this is true or not I do not know.

[Kriz]

That makes perfect sense for Sony to be continuing to reduce the cost for each unit they make.

At the end of 2008, iSuppli examined the newest PS3 build at the time and found it to cost 35% less to make. This is a substantial difference and would bring the manufacturing cost down to almost the same price it retails for. I didn't realise that Sony were the only console maker to be making a loss on their product each year. If there is any hope for a price cut in the near future, it's likely to depend on how cheaply the next die shrink or component integration revision is to make.

[derekva]

Windows 7 released - Looks too much like Vista and doesn't come with ability to choose a Windows XP Luna desktop theme, users unsuprisingly cling to XP.

I managed to get a copy of Build 7071 (after running Windows 7 Beta) and based upon what I've seen, I think Windows 7 is going to sell almost as well as Windows 95 did. I'll be there will be a mass abandonment of XP within 3-4 months of Windows 7 hitting the shelves.

Apple release cheap netbook - Atom + Ion. Maybe 10+ hour battery life.

I was with you until you used the terms "Apple" and "cheap" in the same sentence.

Sony Playstation 3 sees a large price cut.

Probably pretty likely - either switching to a smaller fab or simple survival economics will be in play.

Microsoft release Blu-ray addon for XBOX 360 within 2 months of PS3 price cut.

Blu-Ray requires Java and is (still!) not a white-paper standard. I don't think Microsoft will touch it with a 10-foot pole.

Nintendo enjoy steadily increasing demand, no price change on Wii.

Now this one I can agree with.

-D

[aristide1]

Is it true if you buy Vista + SP1 today you qualify for a copy of Win 7 later?

Predictions:

1. Banks will maintain their current social status, you walk into one and get the same slimey feeling you get at a car dealership when the sales person approaches. Water usage rises as people are overwhelmed by the need to shower.

2. Extremists will become more extreme.

3. Nobody will get any prison time for any part they played in all the toxic investments, that's capitalism American-style. Instead they get permanent positions working for the US government, based on experience?

4. People, dead set that global warming is caused by sun spot activity, will continue to use premeditated ignorance to deny the possibility that global warming is caused by sun spots but is also currently being magnified by human activity. Having an all or nothing mentality is a sign of being an extremist, see item 2.

5. NVidia fails to get their act together with a solid, fast, cool 45nm video card. To make their line look new they renumber everything yet again.

[LodeHacker]

@aristide1:
1. Absolutely with you.
2. Naturally
3. Sounds familiar...
4. I'm sure you've seen the Al Gore movie and to be honest it's all bullshit marketing. If I remember correctly some of the graphs did NOT have a unit displayed in one of the axis. Al Gore wanted publicity with this one, like he has done anything but contribute to global warming.
5. Now now, don't shoot NVIDIA down. The problem with the 8 series was that they pushed too many variants and they got so many leftover parts that it only made sense to renumber the series (this made ATI gain a better position but a tiny bit slower than if NVIDIA continued to sell under the same series numbering). Whether they get down to 45nm is questionable, just recently they've got to 55nm fabrication. At any case I am sure they'll understand the need for the non-enthusiast/gamer market. Some people just want discrete graphics which are not as expensive as Quadro and still provide adequate gaming performance. I miss the time when the 6 series was launched SO MUCH. When people boasted about their 6800 Ultra in SLI, etc... it was the revolution in PC graphics. now NVIDIA got sloppy, I do admit that.

[aristide1]

4. I'm sure you've seen the Al Gore movie and to be honest it's all bullshit marketing. If I remember correctly some of the graphs did NOT have a unit displayed in one of the axis. Al Gore wanted publicity with this one, like he has done anything but contribute to global warming.

Well, as is all too common these days, the leaders of whatever (religion, politics, everything controversial) to lace their facts with lies in order to enhance their position. It's nothing new and goes back before Limbaugh was born. The irony is that the identification of the lies that the "leaders" place there on their own is their own undoing. The sad part is once identified as "full of it" any factual comments get tossed along with the BS, ie they throw the baby out with the bathwater. That's human nature since day 1 and it's not about to change. So stick with the facts and don't embellish your position. You will see scientific data in peer reviewed articles that is very carefully worded. There's a reason for that.

It also worth noting that junk science is a tool that cuts both ways. Up until about what? 10-15 years ago tobacco companies had "scientists" that could prove cigarettes were not bad for your health. Uhhh, these people still needs job, they must be working somewhere, and it seems they really don't give a rat's butt who they work for or what they say. It may be quite likely their ancestors stoned Copernicus, so when they say for certain there is no man made global warming you may need a grain of salt with that, the size of a refrigerator.

I've never confirmed the claim Al drives a Hummer, but it wouldn't surprise me. Lots of them back in that administration.

5. Now now, don't shoot NVIDIA down.

Oh they don't need my help.

[croddie]

4. I'm sure you've seen the Al Gore movie and to be honest it's all bullshit marketing.

Was on UK TV recently. Half bullshit marketing, expertly done, half actually decent education at a popular level. Quite impressive both ways.

[croddie]

4. People, dead set that global warming is caused by sun spot activity, will continue to use premeditated ignorance to deny the possibility that global warming is caused by sun spots but is also currently being magnified by human activity. Having an all or nothing mentality is a sign of being an extremist, see item 2.

Maybe we need to have more betting markets in more things to counter all-or-nothing views. Of course people still express 100% confidence that oil prices are going to go up say, without being willing to put their money where their mouth is, but they probably do encourage a more moderate probabilistic attitudes to unknown events. Why not have a temperature futures market? It might even become economically important. Prediction: this doesn't happen in 2009.

[aristide1]

4. I'm sure you've seen the Al Gore movie and to be honest it's all bullshit marketing.

Was on UK TV recently. Half bullshit marketing, expertly done, half actually decent education at a popular level. Quite impressive both ways.

Wasn't there a UK court decision that Gore's movie could not be used in classrooms? Lacking science and being too politically motivated?

Then again, let's review the requirements in getting a Nobel Peace Prize and see how some of those awards got handed out.

[NeilBlanchard]

What is Al Gore marketing?

Why should I believe you instead of virtually all the climatologists in the world?

[judge56988]

What is Al Gore marketing?

Why should I believe you instead of virtually all the climatologists in the world?

From this site: http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/ice_ages.html

Nobody is interested in solutions if they don't think there's a problem. Given that starting point, I believe it is appropriate to have an over-representation of factual presentations on how dangerous (global warming) is, as a predicate for opening up the audience to listen to what the solutions are...

former Vice President Al Gore
(now, chairman and co-founder of Generation Investment Management--
a London-based business that sells carbon credits)
(in interview with Grist Magazine May 9, 2006, concerning his book, An Inconvenient Truth)

Now I'm not saying for one minute that I don't believe global warming is happening, but it does make you question it a bit, reading things like this. The question is who do we believe?
One thing for sure is that another ice age would be a lot harder for humanity to cope with.

[Tobias]

What an interesting source. GeoCraft.com seems official enough, but the site doesn't even offer an "about us" for us who wonder who they are. And that article isn't even signed... Any comments should be sent to an email-adress which could belong to Monte Hied, though, but that is all clues we are given.

So who is Monte Hieb? A coalminer. Sorry, but somehow I find him a bit biased. He is also at odds with most of the scientific community. Sure there are scientists claiming just about everything, you can even find scientists claiming that there were no holocaust...

[judge56988]

What an interesting source. GeoCraft.com seems official enough, but the site doesn't even offer an "about us" for us who wonder who they are. And that article isn't even signed... Any comments should be sent to an email-adress which could belong to Monte Hied, though, but that is all clues we are given.

So who is Monte Hieb? A coalminer. Sorry, but somehow I find him a bit biased. He is also at odds with most of the scientific community. Sure there are scientists claiming just about everything, you can even find scientists claiming that there were no holocaust...

There are two facts that are undisputed:

1. The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is increasing - that's easily measurable now and past levels can be determined from ice cores.
2. We are chucking vast quantities of the stuff into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels and decreasing the amount that gets taken out of the atmosphere by cutting down rainforest at a great rate.

The link between the two seems obvious enough. There must be some maths somewhere to show how much of the increase is due to us but I can't find it!

What is disputed is how much effect the increased CO2 will have on the climate, but to say that the whole thing has been invented so that people like Al Gore can make a fortune seems slightly ridiculous.

BTW It's worth remembering that all that CO2 originally came from the atmosphere before it was locked away by vegetation in fossil fuel form. We're gradually returning the planet to the way it was before the dinosaurs were around.
Climate change would be a very bad thing for our civilisation but not necessarily for earth, so people who claim we are destroying the planet are, I think, technically wrong.

[NeilBlanchard]

Hi,

The only way to sell carbon credits is to not use all the carbon credits you have -- in other words, you pollute less so you can sell the credits to someone else to use.

[Kriz]

Windows 7 released - Looks too much like Vista and doesn't come with ability to choose a Windows XP Luna desktop theme, users unsuprisingly cling to XP.

I managed to get a copy of Build 7071 (after running Windows 7 Beta) and based upon what I've seen, I think Windows 7 is going to sell almost as well as Windows 95 did. I'll be there will be a mass abandonment of XP within 3-4 months of Windows 7 hitting the shelves.

The more I hear about Windows 7 the better it sounds in theory. I'm yet to actually get my hands on a new build, but most reports I hear are about it's much improved performance but forget to mention much about any shortcomings or real advantages over XP.

My theory about why Windows XP has thrived and continues to be popular even after 2 years of Vista, is that it was the first truely stable version of Windows that the vast majority of people had a chance to use. Admittedly it wasn't until about the time of the first service pack that it really began to shine, but by this time I remember I was telling anyone that would listen that XP is the best Windows out there for everyone to use, and if they were uncomfortable with the new Fisher Price style Luna interface, it still had the option of a Windows 98 style layout.

Vista to me represented a chance for Microsoft to further refine the XP interface, increase O/S core security, improve performance and support newer devices.

In reality I found the new Vista interface to be less logical than previous versions of Windows and got in the way of actual work, the infamous UAC either caused insanity or was quickly disabled, overall performance seemed slow and sluggish on even the newest hardware, but it did appear there was actual support for newer devices. Pity about the rest of the problems.

Apple release cheap netbook - Atom + Ion. Maybe 10+ hour battery life.

I was with you until you used the terms "Apple" and "cheap" in the same sentence.

I think that was my original intention, I should've probably written it as:

Apple release "cheap for Apple" netbook - Atom + Ion. Maybe 10+ hour battery life.

It'll most likely be at least $200 more than the most expensive netbook Asus has released with an Atom CPU.

Microsoft release Blu-ray addon for XBOX 360 within 2 months of PS3 price cut.

Blu-Ray requires Java and is (still!) not a white-paper standard. I don't think Microsoft will touch it with a 10-foot pole.

I'd completely forgotten about the Java component of Blu-Ray and the history Microsoft has had with it. My guess is that if Microsoft truely want to support Blu-Ray in a non-Windows type environment, then I believe they'll do what is necessary to make it happen. The first Sony VHS device is an example that comes to mind.

In any case, it's going to be an interesting year ahead.

[Kriz]

I think it's always wise to keep an eye open to possibilities and ideas that are far from or opposite to your own opinion, especially when it's difficult or near impossible to prove/disprove beyond a shadow of a doubt.

When it comes to the subject of Climate Change, I feel a little like Fox Mulder looking at the poster hanging in the basement of the X-Files of a blurry classic UFO shaped object with the caption underneath "I Want To Believe".

I'm about 51% sure that we are directly or indirectly responsible for Climate Change, but at the same time I cannot be certain because there are too many interests involved and many different ideas and sides to the argument.

Until the time I believe otherwise, I am happy to live my life in a way that does not unnecessarily inconvenience me, yet is still possible to leave a smaller footprint than I would have otherwise left. Although by living my life the way I am, I believe I would be much better prepared than most if there is a need for people to shift to living a more resource friendly life.

Plus, we save a couple of grand each year this way so it's easier to pay the bills

[Fred]

Windows 7 released - Looks too much like Vista and doesn't come with ability to choose a Windows XP Luna desktop theme, users unsuprisingly cling to XP.

I don't know about that. I haven't tested it myself, but everyone who have tried it seems to like it, even the most sceptical bunch of emulator programmers i ever talked to.

I'll be there will be a mass abandonment of XP within 3-4 months of Windows 7 hitting the shelves.

Now that i'm not sure of. Win7 will most likely be immensely more popular than vista, but if there will be a mass abandonment of XP... i don't know. :P

[floffe]

I'll be there will be a mass abandonment of XP within 3-4 months of Windows 7 hitting the shelves.

Considering that the pro and enterprise versions will include a virtual environment containing XP Pro, I don't quite think so (at least not in the sense of XP not being on many computers any more).

[Kriz]

Considering that the pro and enterprise versions will include a virtual environment containing XP Pro, I don't quite think so (at least not in the sense of XP not being on many computers any more).

This is very encouraging news, and has me reminiscing of when I first used OS/2 Warp with it's ability to show Windows 3.1 windows within the OS/2 desktop. It was mighty impressive back in 1994, although this looks like they are achieving the same thing now with XP within Win7 through more modern tricks.

[thejamppa]

I think 2009 will show great change in IT world. Thanks to current economy, China will become more and more important factor in IT world. Significance of China will increase a lot by 2009 in IT world.

Of course there might be changes of Steve Jobs dying in renewed cancer, which would affect greatly in Apple, that is leaning greatly in Job's charisma and innovation.

[colm]

I predict scientists attribute global warming with the 14 degree delay in fuel injected automobile camshaft timing

the xp90 heatsink lasts for another 23.7 years, like the apc ups getting bigger all the time...

the three main bearing boxer four returns....better than ever.

My movie clips of silliness does something accidentally attention getting...

Talks of god overruled by facts...this means confrontation.

[L2GX]

-small local car manufacturers start looking for venture capital, planning to build cars at half the weight with exchangeable power modules. They promise adaptive production lines allowing faster integration of new materials and designs. However there will be a bottleneck in the homologation of their prototypes.

-PC use will drop as smartphones and tvs take over the most common pc tasks. Web 3.0 is proposed to describe new mostly automated services. This widens the divide between 'savvy' and 'mainstream' internet users.

-As mainstream surfing gets more guided advertisement money follows and Web 2.0 is said to collapse in a flurry of buyouts. Much is made of the Google monopoly.

-It becomes apparent that traditional tv and movie theatres follow their own lifecycle curve and will last another decade. This is also apparent for magazines and newspapers. Savvy media groups use the web 2.0 collapse to reorganize.

-3D movie technology goes back in the box as less capable directors literally give viewers a headache.

-commercial spaceflight keeps advancing with babysteps. However White Knight Two, "Enterprise", will capture the public's imagination with its first test flights.

-green technology focuses on patching existing infrastructure. Thermal pumps, insulating wall plating, low drag road resurfacing and other technologies thrive. There is a backlash against government 'green' spending on projects with poor projected efficiency. Some prjects are proven to be outright scams.

[codyBane]

Al Gore the mad scientist? There's an interesting rebuttal to "an inconvenient truth" you can watch for free on youtube or download for free elsewhere called "the great global warming swindle". You have to get past the first 20 minutes of criticism before you get to the good information. These scientists aren't claiming global warming doesn't exist or isn't happening but they do go into Al Gore's missing data and the incomplete science that Al Gore's claims are based on.

[croddie]

Wasn't there a UK court decision that Gore's movie could not be used in classrooms? Lacking science and being too politically motivated?

As if science still exists in UK classrooms!

[croddie]

I'm about 51% sure that we are directly or indirectly responsible for Climate Change, but at the same time I cannot be certain because there are too many interests involved and many different ideas and sides to the argument.

I think a big problem is it's very rare to understand risk. Rational decision making TM, markets, medicine, business,...: all based on acting under unknown risks, but politicians can't express uncertainty; everything has to line up with no doubt.

[L2GX]

I remember debating on the eve of "operation Iraqi freedom". Few of the people that stuck with the US and UK government points of view then will do so now. Now everyone knows those governments lied.
Back then, it was clear to any neutral observer.

Today global warming sees the same divide. Big business and conservatives on one side, and the varied left on the other side.

From a neutral point of view the left's reaction is obviously spiteful and too dramatic. It's *climate* change. We'll see more casualties, and drama, 10, 20, 30 years from now. ´No need to shout wolf till you get hoarse. A lot of believer seem to care more about winning arguments by piggybacking on genuine scientists than they care about the planet.

From the same, neutral point of view the conservatives' reaction is inconceivably careless. It's a reaction that originated amongst the happy few, trying to protect vested financial interests. For some reason regular conservatives and neoliberals picked it up even though they lack the few million in income, superyacht and oil industry shares that inspired the conservative scepticism.

Those of you who like to bbq and drive monster trucks and keep their jobs should by rights be on the left side of the global warming divide. Ecological monster trucks are not impossible to engineer. Charcoal carbon has already been sequestrated by trees. And if your employer is so badly off that eco-measures will drive him under- be honest, is he trying to compete with China? Thought so. Guys, you'll feel Chinese competition less under ecological regulations.

So, from a neutral point of view;

Guys on the left, stop being so smug. You didn't come up with global warming. And there's shit tons of other environmental issues you're ignoring.

Guys on the right, do you have any idea what kind of psychopaths you're supporting? Trust me, they won't support you back.

That being said;
politics aside, climate change is too likely true and too dangerous if true to ignore.